Are We Heading for a Housing Crash?


People are wondering if this current housing re-balancing is going to be the same as the 2007-10 housing crash? It seems very unlikely and here's why:


1. New stricter lending regulations were implemented after the housing crash. Case in point, of the 53.5 million first lien home mortgages in the USA today, the average borrower FICO credit score is a record high 751. It was 699 in 2010,

2. Today’s homeowners have record amounts of home equity. Tappable equity hit a record high of $11 trillion collectively this year, a 34% increase in just a year!

3. Mortgage debt in the US is now less than 43% of current home values, the lowest on record. Now just 2.5% of borrowers have less than 10% equity in their homes.

4. There are currently 2.5 million adjustable-rate mortgages outstanding today...about 8% of active mortgages. In 2007, just before the housing market crash, there were 13.1 million ARMs, representing 36% of all mortgages.


5. More than 80% of today’s ARM originations also operate under a fixed rate for the first 7-10 years.

6. Mortgage delinquencies are now at a record low, with just under 3% of mortgages past due.


In a quick search of bankownedproperties.org, there are a total of 264 pre-foreclosures and foreclosures. A very small portion of the overall housing market. 2020 Census Bureau reports 141,910 homes in Monterey County.


Sources: CNBC - June 20, 2022 and BankOwnedProperties.org